Rating the chance of each Villa player staying next season

With this year's Premier League campaign coming to an end, it's only natural that Villa fans begin looking towards the summer transfer window.


Over the next few weeks, you can guarantee that rumours about incoming players will be popping up all over social media, but what about outgoing players?


In order for Steven Gerrard to bring in lots of new faces, this means that many familiar ones may need to exit Villa Park.


In this article, we're going to go through every Aston Villa player currently under contract, and give a percentage out of 100 whether or not they'll still be with the club come the close of the summer transfer window.


Note: Loan players both in and out of the club will be included.


Emi Martinez. Chance of leaving: 0% Having only just signed a brand new contract, and talking up his love for Villa every time he gets the chance, Martinez is as close to a sure thing for next season as there can be. Villa will have zero interest in selling one of the team's best players. Robin Olsen. Chance of leaving: 60% Since joining on loan in the last transfer window, Olsen hasn't seen a minute of competitive football for Villa. This loan deal being made permanent may suit Villa as a backup option, and there are reports of the club wanting to do just that. However, Olsen will likely want to play more football which isn't going to happen with Martinez about. Viljami Sinisalo. Chance of leaving: 50% Whether Sinisalo is happy with being third choice keeper or whether he'd prefer a loan move out of the club (or a permanent one) is probably 50/50 at this point. Lovre Kalinic. Chance of leaving: 98% Remember this guy? Due to return from loan this summer, Kalinic still has one more year left on his deal. One last loan or the current loan being made permanent feels like the most likely direction. Jed Steer. Chance of leaving: 90% Currently on loan at Luton Town, Steer is another keeper with only a year left on his deal. The chances are that Villa will now look to offload the man who helped them get back to the Premier League, with the player himself looking for more minutes than he'd be offered at Villa Park. Matty Cash. Chance of leaving: 5%

Before signing a new contract last month, this percentage might have been a lot higher with the legitimate interest from Atletico Madrid. Never say never as Villa might be interested if the price was right, but right now, Cash appears to be a big part of Gerrard's plans going forward. Frédéric Guilbert. Chance of leaving: 85% Another player with one year remaining on their contract, Villa look destined to try offload Guilbert before the deal expires. Gerrard may fancy a look at the right-back during preseason, but an outgoing transfer looks like the most likely scenario. Kaine Kesler-Hayden. Chance of leaving: 50% Tough one to call this. Gerrard will want to take a proper look at the young full-back in preseason. Whether he goes back out on loan or he's given a chance with the first team feels very 50/50 right now. There's a 0% chance he gets sold, though. Ezri Konsa. Chance of leaving: 40% This one is difficult to call. A year ago it would have seemed ridiculous that Villa would be considering moving Konsa on. In recent months however, Konsa has struggled to keep his place in the side thanks to some lackluster performances. Links to other right footed center-backs may also give us a clue to what Konsa's future might be at the club.. Also, he's a player who could still bring in a big fee for other transfers.

Tyrone Mings. Chance of leaving: 5% Despite some awful Villa defending across the board this season, Mings feels like the one defender Gerrard never wants to drop. Whether that's due to a handful of outstanding performances here and there, or his leadership on the pitch, Mings seems unlikely to be shipped out. When it comes to the captaincy however, Gerrard's own comments can lead us to believe this one is up for grabs. Calum Chambers. Chance of leaving: 0% Only just signed for Villa and is getting more minutes than he probably expected. He's going nowhere. Kourtney Hause. Chance of leaving: 5% Another player who recently put pen to paper on a new deal, Hause seems happy to be a squad player and Villa are clearly happy to keep him on. The only potential exit could potentially be a loan deal if the player wants more minutes, or if Villa receive a very unlikely offer they can't refuse. Lucas Digne. Chance of leaving: 0% Brand new signing, clearly part of Gerrard's vision for next season. No chance he leaves. Ashley Young. Chance of leaving: 1% Young appears very happy to see out his career in claret and blue, and unless another Premier League team comes out of nowhere with a great offer, Villa will likely give him that opportunity. Ben Chrisene. Chance of leaving: 70% A player who's been on the fringes for a while now, probably the next in line for a loan move. Matt Targett. Chance of leaving: 90%

Targett looks destined to make his loan move to Newcastle a permanent one. Only time will tell if the deal can be finalized. Even if it can't, it doesn't appear the player is happy playing second string to Digne, so will likely depart regardless. Marvelous Nakamba. Chance of leaving: 1% Having only just come back from injury and flourishing under Gerrard earlier in the season, Nakamba leaving doesn't make sense for either party right now. Tim Iroegbunam. Chance of leaving: 1% Just signed a new deal and beginning to break into the first team, young Tim isn't going anywhere! I've only added 1% due to the very small chance Villa bring in two or three quality defensive midfielders, which might lead to a loan move for Iroegbunam. For more on why Villa fans are so excited about Iroegbunam, check out James' article here:


https://www.theavfcfaithful.co.uk/post/why-i-rate-tim-iroegbunam-so-highly Douglas Luiz. Chance of leaving: 95%

People might disagree here, but I can't see a scenario in which Luiz sticks around. He's a huge asset with only a year left on his deal with no signs of the player wishing to extend his contract. With teams like Roma seriously interested, and Villa already looking elsewhere for defensive midfielders, Luiz looks like the prime candidate to bring some cash into the transfer kitty. Jacob Ramsey. Chance of leaving: 0% He's incredible, he's one of our own, he's signed a new contract, end of discussion. John McGinn. Chance of leaving: 20 % Highly likely to be part of Gerrard's plans going forward. Having said that, if a monster offer was put on the table, I could see the Villa hierarchy wanting to have a look at their options. As much as Gerrard seems to like McGinn, and as much as he's adored by the majority of the fanbase, other options may be appealing if a big money offer comes in. Fingers crossed he stays, though! Morgan Sanson. Chance of leaving: 65% Most Villa fans can't help but feel for Sanson, it's been an incredibly frustrating time for the Frenchman who seems like he can't catch a break. He may want to give it one more shot, but a return to France feels like the most likely scenario. Conor Hourihane. Chance of leaving: 100% As much as Villa fans love Hourihane, his time at the club is undoubtedly at an end. After a couple of loan deals, his contract is finally up and the player himself has said his time at Villa is all but done. I'm sure the entire Villa fanbase shares my well wishes and thanks to Conor. Best of luck to him. Carney Chukwuemeka. Chance of leaving: 75% This one, sadly, feels unavoidable. With the player refusing to sign a new deal due to a lack of minutes, and the club appearing to refuse him minutes until a new deal is signed, we appear to be at a standstill.

With German clubs also sniffing around, Carney's exit feels more and more likely with each passing day. This departure would be a tough pill to swallow, especially if Carney goes on to fulfill his potential. Check out Harry's article for a more detailed look at Carney's potential departure: https://www.theavfcfaithful.co.uk/post/carney-to-leave-this-summer Emi Buendia. Chance of leaving: 25% Having only been with Villa for a year, Buendia being sold would be a big blow for the Villa fans. Although it's unlikely, it can't be ruled out. With Buendia struggling to get game time while Coutinho is at the club, nobody could really blame the player for beginning to look elsewhere. This one really depends on what happens with Coutinho, the set up Gerrard wants to use next season, and whether any serious bids come in for the Argentine. Philippe Coutinho. Chance of leaving: 40% £33 million plus some pretty staggering wages is the reported cost to make Coutinho's move to Villa a permanent one. If it was completely up to Gerrard, this one would be about 80-90%, but it isn't. With performances away from home being very inconsistent for the Brazilian, there are definitely some doubts around whether it would be a good deal for Villa.

When push comes to shove though, you would think a club like Villa would not turn down an opportunity to sign a player like Coutinho, especially if there's a chance to surround him with better players next season! There is of course the threat of another team also coming in for him, so watch this space! Caleb Chukwuemeka. Chance of leaving: 70% Unlike his brother, Caleb looks more likely to leave on loan again as his progression continues. Aaron Ramsey. Chance of leaving: 70% Might be one year too soon to think about first team football for Villa. One more loan deal, this time in the championship, is probably the best option. Trezeguet. Chance of leaving: 95% It very much appears Trezeguet is not part of Gerrard's plans for next season. If there's a buyer, he's probably gone. Anwar El Ghazi. Chance of leaving: 95% Due to no fault of his own, it really hasn't worked out for El Ghazi at Everton, so that deal will not be made permanent. Villa will probably still look to shift him out regardless. Much like Trezeguet, it will depend on the buyers. Jaden Philogene-Bidace. Chance of leaving: 60% Another youngster Gerrard will want to have a look at. One more loan looks the most likely option. Leon Bailey. Chance of leaving: 5%

Although this season hasn't gone to plan for Bailey, Villa will still look to do everything in their power to find the player who cost them over £30 million. Despite poor performances following his injury, Gerrard continues to pick the Jamaican winger, which might point towards him firmly being in the manager's plans. The only way he goes is if an unrefusable offer comes in, which is very unlikely at this stage. Bertrand Traore. Chance of leaving: 45% It's difficult to know whether or not Bertrand is happy with his position at Villa, so he may want a new challenge. Villa, on the other hand, will probably only let the winger go for the right price. A loan deal to drive up a potential sale next season shouldn't be ruled out. Cameron Archer. Chance of leaving: 20% Archer has been killing it in the championship with Preston, and there's no doubt they'd love him back for another season. Archer is the one player who probably stands more of a chance of sticking around following this latest loan move, though. If a Premier League side wishes to take him on loan (one of the recently promoted teams perhaps), then that might be an option Villa take seriously. A permanent deal or another championship loan seems highly unlikely at this stage. Keinan Davis. Chance of leaving: 99%

The current loan Davis has at Nottingham Forest looks certain to be made permanent. If that falls through for some reason, then his recent performances should be enough to get him a deal elsewhere. Wesley. Chance of leaving: 95% Much like El Ghazi and Trezeguet, if there's a buyer willing to take Wesley, Villa will sell. It's such a shame that such a big transfer ended this way. Louie Barry. Chance of leaving: 60% If Villa can find the right loan deal once again, Barry will likely go. However, let's not rule out a season (or half) of cameo appearances for Villa. Danny Ings. Chance of leaving: 5% Ings is only a year into his Villa career, and although it's not gone entirely to plan this season, we have seen glimpses of the top striker Villa paid all that money for. As long as there isn't a silly offer for him, Ings will most likely stay for another season. Ollie Watkins. Chance of leaving: 30% This one is tough. The chances are that he'll of course stay. Gerrard clearly likes the striker and Villa invested a lot of money into the player. He could easily still have a big future at Villa. Having said that, much like McGinn, if a monster offer comes in, it may well be looked at. With a few England caps (and goals!) to his name, Watkins could bring in a huge chunk of cash. If an offer like that does come in, then it's worth remembering that Watkins was very much a Dean Smith player, Gerrard may not feel as strong.. Also, let's not forget that Watkins is an Arsenal lad at heart and they are on the hunt for a new striker. If that offer were to come in, especially if they reach the Champions League, Watkins' head could easily be turned.

So there we have it! Quite a few names look like they may well be out the door this summer! Do you agree with these percentages? Or am I talking a load of old waffle? Feel free to let me know @MikeyGalaszia on twitter and of course through all the AVFC Faithful social media accounts.

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